Aluminum, production is difficult to reduce supply, aluminum prices are not weak
China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises' production and maintenance capacity (including the planned part) exceeded 1.8 million tons, a significant increase from the 820,000 tons in the first half of the year. However, it is still difficult to boost the aluminum price rebound. Since more than 1 million tons of capacity will be withdrawn in the second half of the year, the actual reduced production will not be as large as capacity.

From the perspective of the primary consumer market, it only relies on export growth support. A considerable part of the disguised export exists. China's aluminum demand may be overestimated. In the future, once the export declines (the ratio remains above 7.3 and the foreign premium declines, the European consumption growth will be suppressed). Exports will increase) China will face the possibility of annualization of over 900,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum stranded in China, which will lead to the deterioration of excess conditions.

Investment suggestion: continue to continue to judge the aluminum price in the early stage, exclude the aluminum factory to obtain the policy and other related preferential costs, high cost exit, low-cost production will continue to modify the cost structure of electrolytic aluminum, while energy, alumina and other costs are lower. It will also push the electrolytic aluminum but the cost will open up the space for the aluminum price. In the short-term, if the aluminum price can rebound to around 12,800 yuan / ton, it can continue to rallied short-term, short-term short-term orders continue to hold, based on the decline in exports, the ratio can be high (intention to exchange rate lock).

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