China is still surplus in the whole year, and the surplus has expanded to about 650,000 tons. According to the latest data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global aluminum market supply shortage of 487,000 tons from January to July this year, of which the global primary aluminum demand in January-July was 33.63 million tons, an increase of 4.595 million tons, the supply It is 33.43 million tons.
In 2014, the supply of primary aluminum was short of 754,000 tons. In addition, according to reports from authoritative organizations, the aluminum industry is still in a pattern of capacity expansion faster than demand growth in 2015-2016. This supply and demand relationship and the current sluggish aluminum price have determined that the aluminum price is still difficult to enjoy the stimulus brought by the loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, which led to the stagflation of aluminum price compared with other basic metals but not obvious.
As for the fundamentals of aluminum itself, the supply gap in the aluminum market except China has gradually narrowed this year as aluminum production resumed growth. This will continue to exert pressure on the aluminum. On the supply side, domestic aluminum companies have increased the import of bauxite from Malaysia, so the impact of the Indonesian export ban has been completely eliminated, and domestic alumina production continues to expand, thus making domestic alumina supply completely unproblematic. As for the output of electrolytic aluminum, the scale of foreign production reduction has narrowed, while the domestic electrolytic aluminum output has continued to expand, and has repeatedly hit a record high, which has driven the global electrolytic aluminum production to climb.
Demand: Although the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to expand, and the real estate industry is gradually recovering and stabilized in the second quarter, the demand of the aluminum market may be improved, but the improvement in demand is still not expected to be translated into real. Demand, therefore, has a limited stimulating effect on aluminum prices. The last thing to watch out for is that the expected reduction in production by aluminum companies has not yet arrived, leaving aluminum prices with a strong internal driving force.