In the past few days, the photovoltaic sector, which has been quiet for more than a year, has suddenly started as a whole, and the relevant stocks have risen sharply in a short period of time, and the sector index has also strengthened. In this regard, the industry insiders told this reporter that this year's "6.30" after the expected industry performance superimposed a number of policy positives, as well as relatively low sector valuation, is the main cause of this round of PV stocks change, But whether the market will continue in the future remains to be seen.
"In the recent period, the profit margins of silicon wafers, battery chips and components have risen very sharply. The supply and demand tension caused by the rush to install has not been broken since the beginning of '6·30', plus the leader's plan and The network time point was postponed to '9·30', which also brought some of the demand for rushing, which made the overall profit of PV companies, especially mid-stream enterprises still maintained at a good level.” Liu Yang, chief operating officer of Quanmin PV, told the Shanghai Stock Exchange yesterday. The reporter said.
The data shows that the price of PV modules on the market continues to be strong. The polycrystalline components report 2.8-2.9 yuan/W, and the single crystal components report 3-3.2 yuan/W. The first-line component companies are full of orders, and the products are in short supply. Some even believe that even if the price of components will remain at this level by the end of the year. Sales of some components have been released to the outside world, and quotations will be raised during the month.
It is worth noting that the recent policy on the PV industry has also undergone positive changes. According to the website of the Ministry of Land and Resources, on the afternoon of September 5, Minister of Land and Resources Jiang Daming hosted the 19th Ministerial Office Meeting to review and approve in principle the Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry (Draft for Review) Multiple files within. It is reported that this review draft has revised the relevant regulations on photovoltaic land and can be "loose" under certain conditions.
In addition, the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration issued a letter on the solicitation of the “Notice on Reducing the Tax Fees of Enterprises Relating to Renewable Energy”, and clarified the tax and fee reduction policies for renewable energy enterprises. One of the specific conditions is that the VAT for photovoltaic power generation products will be refunded 50%, and will be extended from the end of 2018 to the end of 2020.
"Under the double effect of scale effect and technological progress, the PV industry chain can reach the parity of the Internet, and the industry's profit focus shifts from the components and power stations to the polysilicon materials and monocrystalline silicon wafers in the midstream." An industry researcher said.
In this regard, Liu Yang believes that the parity of the Internet will certainly be realized by 2019, the photovoltaic power plant revenue will be more and more certain, and the core competitiveness of the industry will rise further. At the same time, the photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises, especially the upstream gross margin will return to rationality in the future, but how can the middle reaches be difficult to say. In any case, the revenue of PV companies before the third quarter of this year will definitely be better.
“In the short term, there is no event-based fundamental change in the industry, but in the medium and long term, the state attaches more and more importance to environmental protection, and new energy is the fundamental solution to improve the environment. The market's attention to related industries has risen, which may be one reason why the capital market began to pay attention to the photovoltaic sector." Ma Yi, vice president of Photovoltaic, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange yesterday.
He said that the photovoltaic industry does have some positive factors. First, the new installed capacity in 2017 exceeded expectations: from the 25-30 GW, which was generally expected at the beginning of the year, to the current 45-50 GW. Among them, the first half of the rush to install and the second half of the leader, poverty alleviation, and the market expected to self-use distributed photovoltaic rush to the end of the year, contributed the main force. In the first half of the year, the newly installed PV installed capacity exceeded that of thermal power, and it became the first largest power supply in China's new power installations for the first time.
Previously, the PV grid-connected data released by CEC in July showed that the grid connection in July was as high as 10.5 GW, which was once again exceeding market expectations.
“On the other hand, the low-cost Internet access on the distributed PV user side has been realized in 2016, and the “distributed photovoltaic + energy storage power” will be realized in 2018. The first “subsidy” of PV since 2004 The big cycle will end, and the next step of the 'quiet Internet access cycle' has begun.” Ma Wei said that the general growth of this round of PV sector shows that there is incremental capital entry, and from the consensus of industry researchers, the industry valuation level Also lower.