The reason is also very simple: with the continuous advancement of technology, the quality of recycled aluminum has become closer to that of primary aluminum; and because of technological advances, the price of primary aluminum products is getting closer to recycled aluminum.
In 2014, China's primary aluminum production was 24.38 million tons, up 7.7% year-on-year; total output was 5.65 million tons (physical volume), up 8.65% year-on-year; imported waste aluminum was 2.306 million tons (physical volume), down 7.9% year-on-year, and from 2011 Since the beginning of the year, it has declined for four consecutive years; the amount of waste aluminum produced in China is about 3 million tons; the total utilization of waste aluminum is about 4.5 million tons.
In the first quarter of 2015, China's alumina imports were 930,000 tons, down 37% year-on-year; bauxite imports were 10.6 million tons, down 23% year-on-year; the original aluminum imports in the first four months fell 79% from the same period in 2014, while the spot The price of the original aluminum ingots in China also fell by nearly two-thirds from January. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total volume of unwrought aluminum exports from January to May was 206 tons, an increase of 35.4% over the same period last year.
With the expansion of production capacity and the passage of time, the increase in the social accumulation of China's aluminum resources is also accelerating: in 2003, aluminum consumption exceeded 5 million tons for the first time, and in 2007 it has exceeded 10 million tons. By 2012, it has doubled more than 20 million. Tons, the speed of growth is unparalleled in the world.
The utilization period of aluminum is about 20 years, and the acceleration of the aluminum cycle has also led to a rapid increase in the amount of aluminum produced. At the beginning of this century, the aluminum consumed will soon enter the scrapping period. By then, China will become a major waste aluminum resource and provide favorable support for the development of the recycled aluminum industry.
However, it should also be noted that the industry concentration of the recycled aluminum industry is increasing, but the increasing financing costs have made the company's liquidity tight. In 2014, it has begun to affect the normal capital turnover and production operations of large-scale recycled aluminum enterprises. In addition, the production of cast aluminum alloy by the original aluminum enterprises has also weakened the price advantage of recycled aluminum to a considerable extent, which has brought many uncertain factors to the future development of the recycled aluminum industry.
Cost is the main factor supporting prices, while advances in technology continue to drive down costs. The complementary and competitive relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum also confirms this. There is a certain correlation between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum in the price trend, and their prices are mutually causal and mutually influential.