In order to realize the dream of China's big plane, C919 has been waiting with us for nearly half a century. In order to build a large plane, China tried and explored again and again, and it was a few times. From the dismantling of China's independent research and development, to the assembly of foreign civil machine manufacturers, and even the joint design of the fruitless end, enduring the scars and unwillingness, carrying the regrets of several generations, became courage and The source of strength. The "World Factory" finally gave itself an account and a large aircraft made by itself.
Aviation manufacturing: short board made in China
In 2014, Premier Li Keqiang gave a story to the academicians of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. A foreign politician sold him a domestic plane and gave him a similar model of the aircraft as a gift. When he took over the model and turned it over, the bottom was written "Made in China", made in China! He said, "The models are made by us, but the big planes are sold to us. You think about how many aircraft models do we have to make for a big plane?! Made in China to jump to the middle and high end, What is it? By innovation, this is the fundamental way out for China’s development."
For more than half a century, China’s manufacturing industry has undergone historic changes. China has replaced the United States as the world’s number one industrial producer, ending the history of the United States’ leader of more than a century of industrial nations. According to World Bank data, China's manufacturing value added accounted for 16.9% of the world's total in 2010, and in 2014 this figure rose to 25% of the world's share, a significant increase of 8 percentage points in the past four years. Today's China, the number of industrial products ranked first in the world has more than 220, the export value of manufactured products ranks first in the world, and the industrial output value and manufacturing output value are 1.23 times and 1.4 times that of the United States. Among the more than 220 industrial products, there are many dazzling data in the manufacturing industry:
· Automobile production exceeds 25% of total world production;
· Ship production accounts for 41.9% of the world total;
· Construction machinery production accounts for 43% of the world's total output;
· Computer production accounts for 68% of the world's total production;
· Mobile phone production exceeds 70% of total world production;
·Color TV production accounts for 50% of the world's total output;
· Refrigerator production accounts for 65% of the world's total output;
·Air conditioner production accounts for 80% of the world's total output
China has completed manned spaceflight and space docking and dragons into the sea; we have produced more than half of the world's steel; the power generation of modernization factors accounts for 22% of the world's total, ranking first in the world; the total length of China's high-speed railway has reached 1.8. Ten thousand kilometers, accounting for more than 60% of the world's total; the number of newly equipped fighters, warships and tanks ranks first in the world each year. However, we cannot produce large civil aircraft!
Up to now, the only large civil aircrafts between the intercontinental and intercontinental aircraft are Boeing and Airbus. Why are the two major economies in the world, the United States and the European Union, capable of manufacturing large civil aircraft? A set of comparison numbers gives the answer to the question.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in 2014, the US aerospace industry accounted for 0.73% of the total national economy, accounting for 7.82% of US exports; while China's aerospace industry only accounted for 0.05% of GDP, and exports accounted for 0.22%. %. According to statistics from China, the output value of China's civil aviation industry (excluding military industry) in 2013 was 207.84 billion yuan, calculated according to the average growth rate of 23.4% in 2011-2013, and was about 250 billion yuan in 2014. The ratio of AVIC's military and civilian products is about 4:6. Based on this calculation, the output value of the entire aviation industry in 2014 was about 670 billion yuan, equivalent to 0.39% of GDP.
The output value of China's equipment manufacturing industry has exceeded 20 trillion yuan. The Chinese manufacturing industry is on the way from low-end to mid-to-high-end, but the development of the aerospace industry is so lagging behind? This stems from the difference between the development model of traditional steel and automobile industries. Aviation manufacturing industry is recognized as an industry with the highest technical level and technical barriers. It has the characteristics of high technology added value and low labor intensity. After 100 years of industry development, the survival of the capital is very large. Large company or industrial group.
In the past 30 years, while China bought large quantities of aircraft, the dollars that were sent to Boeing and Airbus were uncountable. From the Boeing 737 to the Airbus A380, the catalogue price for each aircraft ranged from $50 million to $2.95 billion (Boeing 737 was $50 million, Boeing 787 was $2.25, and Airbus A380 was $295 million). By the end of 2014, China's major airlines had introduced more than 1,500 Boeing aircraft in total; by October 2014, Airbus had 1,000 aircraft in active service in China. In 2015, China ordered 45 Airbus A330 series aircraft (additional 30); recently signed and confirmed orders with Boeing for 300 Boeing single-aisle aircraft and wide-body aircraft. China has also become one of the largest overseas markets for two airlines to receive more than 1,000 aircraft. China ranks third in the world in terms of aircraft purchase market, behind the United States and the European Union, and is the largest buyer outside Boeing and Airbus. The situation is determined to a considerable extent by the Asian market, especially the Chinese market.
In this game of aerospace manufacturing competition, either bravely enter the long-term monopoly market of the two manufacturers, or spend more money to buy aircraft. According to Airbus forecasts, the total number of new aircraft added in China will be 5,363 in the next 20 years, including 3,567 single-aisle aircraft, 1,477 dual-aisle aircraft, and 319 super-large aircraft. According to Boeing's estimates, in the next 20 years, Chinese airlines will need to purchase 2,300 aircraft worth 200 billion US dollars. The two major airlines have determined that China will become the largest buyer of long-range aircraft and regional aircraft. A $150 million Boeing 747 will bring Boeing [microblogging] a profit of $30 million.
High-level strong voice: China makes its own big plane
In May 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping came to China Commercial Aircraft. As the country's top policy maker, for the first time, it clearly issued the most determined decision made by China's large-scale aircraft. He said: "If we want to be a strong country, we must carry out the equipment manufacturing industry, get the big planes up, and take action. Iconic role. China is the largest aircraft market. In the past, some people said that it is better to buy and buy than to rent. This logic should be reversed. It will cost more money to develop and manufacture its own big plane!"
People who do market analysis in civil aircraft circles have been concerned about China's economic trends, with particular attention to the disturbance of China's relations with the United States and the European Union, because both are related to aircraft orders and prices. In the eyes of the two major aviation giants, China’s decision to buy a plane is sometimes out of market and commerce, but it often uses the purchase of aircraft as a bargaining chip to balance international relations and trade deficits. But China’s decision to build its own single-aisle aircraft is undoubtedly the worst result.
As soon as China began to build its own large aircraft (including transport planes), Western public opinion began to ridicule. When China pushed the new 60 (MA60) 50-seat twin-engine turboprop regional airliner in 1999, it was “extremely dangerous” by the Western media; Yun-12 did not escape the similar fate, they even named the aircraft. Death trap"; McDonnell Douglas even admitted in the "Fortune" magazine that "If you don't retreat, the US plane will not enter China." C919 is derogated, the most influential aviation weekly in the aviation industry. According to the article, “China Commercial Aircraft Engineers, Middle Managers and Managers have no experience in manufacturing commercial aircraft at all”, asserting that “there is almost no hope that China Commercial Aircraft will send the mid-range commercial aircraft C919 to heaven”, claiming to China In eight years, an aircraft like the 737 will be built. The author said, "Climb the C919 to Chengdu or Shanghai at the Beijing Capital International Airport. I don't believe I can live that day."
The two giant manufacturers pay special attention to the C919, and their heavyweights have long guessed that China will build large aircraft sooner or later. Although the cost of developing a model aircraft is huge, this decision comes from the highest level in China and will eventually be achieved and is likely to succeed. They also believe that only the group of representatives of the national will (referring to China Commercial Aircraft) can create success, which is what they value most.
When China’s “National Medium- and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan” was released and the large aircraft project became one of the 16 major projects, these magnitudes knew that the C919 was not just an aircraft, but behind it was China’s long-term strategic interests. China not only hopes to become the second largest economy recognized by the international community, but also hopes that the international community recognizes itself as the engine of technological innovation. To do this, China needs to prove that it has the ability to produce any industrial products, especially large aircraft, which is related to the honor of a country. Former Boeing CEO said: "I don't think China has technical obstacles that can't be overcome. They have sent astronauts to space twice, and some of the world's best aerodynamics are Chinese." It is a more ambitious story.
In this way, the C919 set off in the voice of doubt. Although the information from COMAC indicates that they are determined to become the world's third largest manufacturer of large passenger aircraft, the C919 name can be seen to be the will of the world aircraft market ABC with Airbus Boeing. Airbus has the English letter "A" "Airbus", Boeing is "B" (Boeing), "C" comes from the first letter of English in China and the manufacturer (COMAC). But objectively speaking, the C919 is the second large-scale civil aircraft designed independently by China after the 10th. For the global civil aviation aircraft manufacturing industry, it is not to fill the gap in the development of medium-sized and narrow-body passenger aircraft, but to share the market segments. The demand for the most growth models.
Huangpi Baixin: Is it self-developed?
The positioning of the model development of the C919 project is “independent development, international cooperation, and international standards”. Some people in China questioned that C919 is a "yellow skin white heart", saying that China only designed the drawings and made a case. The key systems of the aircraft, including the engine and the avionics system, were purchased from other countries, and concluded that: It is the assembly of goods and boasted into independent research and development, compared with Yun 8, Yun 10 without any pride.
Let's start with the "shell." The body consists of a large part of the nose, fuselage, wing and tail. The wing components are called "the soul of the aircraft" by the British aircraft manufacturer. It is the wing of the aircraft that determines the take-off weight of the aircraft and the operation of the aircraft. Efficiency and economy. If Boeing Airbus previously used Russia and Japan to produce wings for business jets, then China is catching up.
Chen Yingchun, deputy chief designer of C919 and member of the Standing Committee of China Commercial Aircraft Science and Technology Commission, said: The two decisive factors determining the performance of the aircraft are the aerodynamic lift-to-drag ratio (aerodynamic efficiency) and the weight of the aircraft. In the design stage, our target is the C919 machine. The weight of the wing is beyond the level of Boeing, and the aerodynamic efficiency is to reach the level of Airbus. A team of 100 experts from China's aircraft aerodynamics team has designed a total of 500 airfoils for the C919. The wing currently used on the C919-101 is a representative of several rounds of structural testing, in many countries in Europe and America. The results of the wind tunnel test have been highly evaluated by international counterparts, and several important indicators of acoustic resistance ratio, navigation characteristics and stall characteristics have surpassed competitive models.
In order to reduce the weight and reduce fuel consumption, the C919 uses composite materials and aluminum-lithium alloys in 600 parts. The composite material accounts for 20% of the structural weight of the aircraft, while the composite material used for the wing, titanium alloy, accounts for about 10%. The competitive models (B737 and A3200) accounted for far less than the C919. The C919 is designed from the nose, the wing to the tail, and the engine.
When the 2006 21st Century Business Herald reporter visited Boeing, Boroy Civil Aviation Group Vice President Caroline Covey said: About 65% of Boeing aircraft parts are purchased outside Boeing, 777 or 767. The entire fuselage of the aircraft was built in different factories in Japan. Some engines were made in France. Most of the flight control, leading edge devices, electrical and hydraulic systems were produced in North America. This is the mainstream “main manufacturer-supply model” of current aircraft manufacturers, in order to share project development costs and risks.
She also told 21st Century Business Herald that a complete Boeing 747 aircraft would be tightly assembled from 4.5 million parts, bringing together the various components at the same time, from all over the world and assembling into aircraft. Making airplanes more difficult to fly. If people can assemble the purchased parts and let it fly, there will be no two big aircraft manufacturers in the world. She particularly stressed: What is the core competitiveness of Boeing? That is, we have the ability to integrate, including the integration of technology, design and “main supply mode” innovation. This is what Boeing has but it is difficult for others to copy and cannot copy.
China Commercial Aircraft also adopted the “main supply mode”. Objectively speaking, there is a fundamental difference between China Commercial Aircraft and Boeing adopting the “main supply mode”. Boeing has the ability to produce all its own accessories, while COMAC does not master most of the machines. The technology of carrying equipment, this is where our gap lies. Boeing will usher in a history of 100 next year, Airbus has 45 years, and China Commercial Aircraft is only 7 years old. However, the two aircraft manufacturing companies have never established 16 joint ventures for the development of a model aircraft, and the purpose of establishing a joint venture company is to accelerate learning and localization as soon as possible.
Even if all the airborne equipment of the 101 aircraft are imported, including the engine, avionics, flight control and landing gear, the purchase contract amount is 17 million US dollars, compared with the catalog price of 50 million US dollars, the total value of these components. It is much more than the value of the aircraft. We used to have a case of process control switches. Once the Chinese can develop the 04 machine, the countries that divide the "seven countries and eight systems" in the Chinese market can no longer sell at a high price, from 250 dollars to 5 dollars, the import substitution effect. Direct response to price changes. People want to give China COM and C919 time!
In this regard, Peking University [microblogging] Professor Lu Feng, who participated in the special demonstration of large aircraft and made an important impact on decision-making, told reporters: "We have not only thrown away an aircraft, but with a fundamental The key to sex is that China has lost its platform for research and development of civilian passenger aircraft products. As a result, the gap between China's technological capabilities and the technological capabilities of the United States and Europe has widened over the past two decades. This widening gap actually caused China to enter the civil aircraft field.