The price of aluminum is close to 10,000 yuan per ton, and market differences are intensified.
Shanghai aluminum has fallen to a minimum of 10,250 yuan / ton in recent days. When the aluminum price was only 12,125 yuan / ton from the 2008 financial crisis, the market divergence became larger, and the Shanghai aluminum market transactions and positions were both heavy. From October 23 to 27, the Shanghai aluminum market traded 655,900 lots, 541,200 lots and 445,500 lots respectively. The corresponding positions were 50.30 million lots, 528,200 lots and 562,600 lots. Such high volume and open interest are similar to the reverse of the high aluminum prices in September 2014 and August 2011. Shanghai Aluminum subsequently rebounded to a maximum of 10,650 yuan / ton, is the reversal unfolding?
Judging from the positions of the main seats, both the long and short sides of the main force increased their holdings steadily and steadily. In the same period, the main short-selling holdings were more than the mains. The latest top 20 main headroom positions are 47,412 lots, which is different from the two high aluminum price reversals mentioned above. In the two high reversals in September 2014 and August 2011, the main short position gradually took the initiative in the process of the aluminum price. From the current point of view, the low aluminum price has not stopped to see the advantage of the main bulls.
In the short-term bulls, there are also weights. After the suspension of production in Chinalco, the Fushun Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. has also implemented a full-line shutdown. In addition, the aluminum futures stopped falling, the downstream purchases showed signs of recovery, the receiving sentiment rebounded, the spot discount was narrower than the previous period, and the Shanghai area was 120-140 yuan/ton. The spot slightly improved to support the aluminum price, but the contradiction between supply and demand will not be resolved, and the rebound of aluminum price will remain limited.
The production cut is equivalent to the production, and the resumption of production is just around the corner.
Due to the decline in raw material prices, there is room for compression of electrolytic aluminum. What is said here is not to cut the on-grid tariff by 0.03 yuan / kWh. After all, the on-grid tariff is lowered instead of the terminal sales price. For China's electrolytic aluminum, which has reached 75% of its own electricity ratio, lowering the feed-in tariff does not mean that the cost per ton of aluminum in the whole industry will fall by 375 yuan. Power coal has continued to decline for nearly a month, saving costs for aluminum plants equipped with self-supplied electricity. In addition, the latest alumina price fell below 2,000 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton a month, which means that the cost of tons of aluminum fell by about 390 yuan / ton, the capacity originally intended to shut down can still support for a while.
On Monday, Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer in the United States, announced that it will cut its smelting capacity of 503,000 tons and alumina refining capacity by 1.2 million tons. It is estimated that Alcoa's 503,000 tons of production capacity accounts for about 31% of the country's primary aluminum smelting output, but less than 1% of the global total. LME aluminum reflects this dullness, and the market is more concerned about the progress of capacity reduction in China's largest aluminum industry, but the actual situation is not optimistic.
With the addition of Fushun, Sichuan Qia, and other aluminum plants, the country has reduced production by more than 3 million tons this year, which is equivalent to the new capacity in the same period. When the price of aluminum stopped falling, the original production enterprises had plans to resume production. It is reported that following the Tongchuan and Dongxing, aluminum production plants in Qinghai and Gansu are actively discussing the preferential electricity prices with the government. On the one hand, the scale of production reduction has not been significantly enlarged, and on the one hand, the strength of production has been reduced to aluminum market, and the rebound in aluminum prices lacks motivation.
The aluminum price in the low volume shows that the market's attention to aluminum and differences have increased. There are very few enterprises that can make profits under the 10,000 yuan per ton mark of aluminum prices. The loss of the whole industry may lead to a decline in production, and the bears are again at a higher risk. For the bulls, the downward shift in costs, the rise of resumption of production, and the passing of the peak season are all negative factors. The price of aluminum will oscillate at a low level, waiting for the adjustment of the industry and the fundamental changes.