Environmental inspection feedback
       On December 26, the Central Environmental Protection Third Inspection Team reported to Shandong: Binzhou, Liaocheng and other places violated the national requirements and vigorously developed over-capacity projects such as electrolytic aluminum. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum seriously exceeded the control target. In 2014, Binzhou City falsely reported the capacity of the uncompleted 2.44 million tons of electrolytic aluminum to be built capacity, and issued false statements to defraud legal procedures and reported that some electrolytic aluminum was under construction. In May 2014, various departments of Liaocheng provided false materials, and the project of the annual production of 450,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum of Wuping Xinyuan Aluminum Co., Ltd., which had just started construction, was falsely reported as a completed project. Since 2013, Binzhou Weiqiao Entrepreneur Group has illegally built 45 units, Binzhou City has never taken effective measures to stop it; Liaocheng Xinfa Group illegally built 9 units, and Liaocheng promoted through coordination of leaders and monthly arrangements. Construction of illegal projects. Tianfeng Nonferrous Group invited industry experts to hold a conference call on “Environmental patrol feedback electrolytic aluminum market re-start”.

       The electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to have an expected reversal. The market was not implemented due to the reform of the supply side of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong, and domestic stocks were high, while the electrolytic aluminum industry was expected to decrease. This feedback exceeded market expectations, and the violations in Binzhou and Liaocheng were severely worded, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was expected to be controlled. The domestic electrolytic aluminum price is expected to control production capacity in Shandong, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory will gradually rise again. The market expectation for the electrolytic aluminum industry is also expected to reverse.

       Compliance capacity is expected to decrease. The 2.89 million tons of falsely reported capacity proposed in this feedback was previously identified as compliance capacity, as it was a high probability event that the false report was identified as non-compliant capacity. The national (without Guangxi) electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity is expected to fall from 36 million tons to 33 million tons. Non-compliant production capacity is expected to be fundamentally controlled. In the future, the newly added compliance capacity will be more orderly and the total capacity increase will be limited.

       Electrolytic aluminum is expected to have a gap. In 16 years, the demand for electrolytic aluminum in the country will reach 32 million tons, and it is expected to continue to maintain a growth rate of 5-7% in the next few years. In the 18 years, the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to have a supply gap. High-yield electrolytic aluminum stocks are expected to continue to decline, and electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to rise again.

       Continue to recommend electrolytic aluminum plates. Continue to recommend China Aluminum and Yun Aluminum shares in the electrolytic aluminum plate.

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来源: Industry information
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